No More MacGyvers?

No More MacGyvers?

Segment(s) of the TSC Impacted:
All Segments

Introduction
Remember the TV show MacGyver from the mid 1980’s? Part Indiana Jones, part A-Team and part Bill Nye the Science Guy, in some ways it was a great show as it made science cool and was an example of how to creatively solve problems to a generation of kids… a generation that may have been one of the last to spend childhood solving problems outside of class which has become a critical problem in today’s workforce.

For those of you not familiar with the show, MacGyver became a noun and a verb for a while and meant that someone could solve what seemed to be insurmountable problems by taking duct tape, baking soda, a push pin and bubble gum and say make a car run again and/or rescue someone that was in danger.

The appeal of the show to the latch-key generation is not the shows great writing (because it wasn’t) it was that it took what a generation had been doing every day in a small, mundane way and went a step or several steps further. It allowed us to imagine where we could go and what we could do.

Department of Education Focus Group
I was recently invited to a meeting at the state Department of Education to participate in a focus group that was trying to help an organization that worked with students to get them excited about various careers.
This focus group consisted of a wide variety of people, from professors at leading research institutions to Dentists to workforce development professionals to talent acquisition leaders like me.

The organizer asked a simple question, what are students missing? You can imagine the discussion that ensued. Communication skills were thrown out, problem solving, work skills, etc., but the conversation moved to critical thinking skills, which is what I felt, was the driver of many of the problems.

I shared that I didn’t remember taking a “critical thinking skills” class in school. So this is not something that was taught at some point and was cut, rather I believe schools ever had this role to begin with. Critical thinking skills were taught through real-world life experiences and by actually doing something in non-structured environments.
I used to think this perception was simply inter-generational elitism… my generation is better than another generation, or perhaps inter-generational misunderstandings. Certainly, I think many perceived issues are based in one or both of these issues… but this specific one may be a genuine difference and I wanted to share my theory about why and find out what you thought.

The Last of the Self Made Problem Solvers?
Before some of you email me pointing out that they are problem solvers and/or know some great problem solvers and critical thinkers within their generation, let me clarify my statement. I am not saying that there are no great critical thinkers or problems solvers in younger generations.
What I am saying is that critical thinking skills used to be taken for granted because it seemed more common. Now it seems less common and/or does not come as naturally.

To be clear this skill is still developed over time, but in more and more cases, even the more basic critical thinking skills come noticeably later than they used to.
This problem is one that we have brought upon ourselves there isn’t anyone to blame; we simply live in a different world. Whether in reality or just in perception, I would never allow my two kids to do the things that me and my peers were expected to.

Let’s compare and contrast and let me know if this sounds familiar:

Getting to school
• Starting in 1st or 2nd grade, I would walk ¾ of a mile to school by myself in a very busy, not so great neighborhood and in the afternoon, walk back by myself
• My kids live 3 blocks from school in an incredibly safe suburb and I wouldn’t even think of letting them walk by themselves to school and they are older.

Coming home from school
• I would let myself into the house and I was responsible for locking up, doing my homework, doing my chores and if I was hungry, make something to eat. If I ran into a problem, I needed to solve it.
• My kids are picked up and ferried to a professionally run after school program where they do their homework and socialize while they wait for me or my wife to pick them up

Independence
• I would be miles from home and was responsible for being back before dinner, with no cell phone
• Now kids are at someone’s home or at a friend’s home, controlled and supervised environment, multiple means to communicate

Needing to eat
• If we got hungry when we were out, we pooled resources to buy food or went to someone’s house
• Generally since they are in a controlled environment, food is typically easily accessible

Things breaking
• If my bike broke down, I needed to fix it with few if any tools and little to no help other than my friends
• Again, generally they are in a controlled environment, so this is not an issue

Getting Hurt
• If me or one of my friends got hurt, we needed to figure out how bad it was, what to do and where to go
• Again, controlled environments, so this is not as much of an issue

Cars and Independence
• When we got close to turning 16 the majority of us that could realistically get or borrow a car would be in line on our 16th birthday to get our licenses.
• Compare that to now, where only roughly 24% of those under 18 that could get licenses do so. I have colleagues that have to force their kids to get licenses as they are going off to college…

Why Have Things Changed?
The reason why things changed is simple and it is our fault. The world is a different place and we feel that our children are under constant threat and that we need to protect them. There is nothing wrong with wanting to protect our kids, and I am certainly not advocating that they should do what we used to. Rather this is just a consequence of that greater protection and we have not found a means to mitigate it.

Solutions?
I am not an expert on education by any means, but I hear and agree with many others talking about the problems with the demands placed on teachers to teach to a test. I don’t think that this is the sole problem, but I worry that having structured work with more work that consists of multiple choice answers is going to exacerbate this issue.

I believe that this may be a real opportunity to balance the need to measure achievement and effectiveness through tests by changing and enriching the educational delivery. This would be done by allowing students to work together in teams to work on challenging problems with less directive guidance and where the answers may not be so clear. A model in which groups of kids can test their solutions to problems that they developed against the merits of other kids solutions to the same problem. This would not be in a competition to win, but rather in a competition to gain understanding, much like that in some alternative educational delivery methods that have emerged recently. Many times in these new schools, teachers, administrators, students and parents are all much more satisfied and confident in their kid’s progress and development.

Conclusion
I think all of us can agree that the state of education is not ideal for anyone involved, and I strongly believe that we have asked the education system to make up for things that it should never have to… however in this case, I see a great opportunity to drive positive change for all involved and potentially solve a critical problem by listening and working together… because if this problem is not solved, generations will struggle to compete in a global market more than ever.

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to send them my way!

© 2013 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved

Mike’s Predictions for 2013

Mike’s Predictions for 2013

Once again we find ourselves at the beginning of a new year and we naturally try to anticipate what is to come.

In the spirit of that, I share my thoughts on where we may be at the end of 2013.

 

Continued Moderate Job Growth through most of 2013
We will continue to see moderate job growth month over month with some months performing better than others.  Near the end if 2013 we may even see jobs numbers approaching the level we truly need every month to significantly impact the unemployment rate but I do not feel it will be sustained for a variety of reasons, one of which I will discuss later in this article.

I feel that the unemployment rate will be somewhere between 7.3 and 6.8% but it will likely be on the higher end of the range.

“Big Data” will make more inroads into recruiting
We have seen a realization in other business areas that the technology necessary for comprehensive data analysis has started to catch up with the amount of data available.

Careerbuilder has been among the first to be recognized as something of a source of content in this area.

I believe we will see mostly large forward thinking companies start to use “big data” within their recruiting departments although the level of sophistication will vary widely.

The government, especially the US Congress will negatively impact business and the labor market
Unfortunately this is all too predictable, but I truly hope I am wrong.

Congress will continue to make ideology and not the American people their priority and will cause a significant drag on the economy as the result of the uncertainty they create through their bickering, inaction and inability to compromise and move on (vs. compromising and trying to “win” the next fight for their respective “bases”)

Further, the debate over the debt ceiling will likely result in a downgrade of the countries credit rating.

If it were not for this self-centered approach of party above all, I would not be surprised to see the unemployment rate drop 1 to 1.5 percentage points…  Isn’t that what we need and wouldn’t that be a win for everyone?

More growth of freelancers/contractors
This is something that experts have been saying would come for some time and this year will only accelerate this trend.  With such a large population that is skilled and has been looking for work, the prospect of working as a contractor will appeal to many who would not have considered it in the past.

So no matter what happens, this year is sure to be an interesting one!  Feel free to share your thoughts and comments.

2012 End of Year Report Card: Mike’s Predictions for 2012

December 22, 2012 Leave a comment

2012 End of Year Report Card: Mike’s Predictions for 2012

This year has been an amazing year in both good ways and in far too many sad tragic ways.  I for one and somewhat glad it is coming to a close in the hopes that next year will be better.

However, for Recruiting and the employment market, we’ve come some way in a long and hard fought recovery, which is at lease one bright spot for all of us!

Here is this year’s final report card-

Moderate Job Growth- 7.3% to 7.9%
Final Grade- A-
Comments
This year we have seen some areas boom (did anyone see North Dakota as the place to go 5 years ago?) and many other areas start to follow…  all of this is good news, especially if we can sustain and hasten the pace!

Strong Healthcare Employment Growth
Final Grade- B+
Comments
Healthcare has continued to grow across all of its subsectors and is positioned to continue its growth into 2013.  This growth has been somewhat more modest than expected, but with the election behind us, I think it will accelerate its pace again in the coming year, especially ahead of the 2014 changes because of healthcare reform

The Election Will Have a Negative Impact
Final Grade- A
Comments
Many people point to the election as having a drag on the economy.  Now, unfortunately with the debate over the fiscal cliff, this drag only continues.

Emerging Markets will begin to lead a Global Recovery
Final Grade- B-
Comments
While emerging markets are contributing to overall growth of a global recovery, economic uncertainty in Europe for much of this past year along with a variety of other factors, including our politicians inability to lead for the countries good, vs. their parties good have overcome this positive effect in large part.

Mobile Recruiting Sites and Geo-Targeted Capability Continue to Converge
Final Grade- B
Comments
Mobile is everywhere and many companies are now seeing the value.  I am somewhat surprised to see who is and is not using geo-targeted capabilities for their jobs.  I have seen demos and through the examples given, who is using location based job search and I have to say the companies that I see using it are more focused on hiring mid-level to senior level professionals.  Generally these are people that are not cost sensitive based on transportation costs, not as time sensitive to a commute and not always likely to find the same exact position down the street from their home in the suburbs.

Conversely I see relatively few companies that do employ those types of individuals I described using it.  Companies that immediately come to mind are any that are similar to retail with smaller sites spread across an entire region with lots of entry level positions that turn over fairly quickly and populations that are not likely to drive 20 miles to make just over minimum wage.

The Sun Will Rise on 12/22/2012
Mid Year Grade- A

Comments
Well, what more can I say?  The world is still here!

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to send them my way and next month I will post my predictions for the coming year!

© 2012 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved

The Good News You May Have Missed in Octobers Unemployment Numbers

The Good News You May Have Missed in October’s Unemployment Numbers

Segment(s) of the TSC Impacted: All

We hear the numbers every month.  X number of jobs (created or lost) and the unemployment rate has (increased or decreased) by X points.

This is usually followed by more commentary about why it’s not as good or as bad as the number appears, usually citing that people have given up on finding a job (if they are trying to temper good news) or that the losses were attributable to something unusual or seasonal (if they are trying to temper the bad news).

All this has made us somewhat desensitized to the monthly report, which is understandable as we all have to deal with day-to-day reality and that quickly pulls us away for deep analysis of this variable number.

The Noise and the Politics

As a commentator put it when describing the report in general “…it is filled with noise…”  October was especially so because of the accusations of manipulation because of the election.

The noise that is typically in the report is simply the variability that happens from month to month.  You have similar noise in your 401(k) statements every quarter.

And as tempting as it is to point fingers at manipulation during this election, and while I acknowledge all things are possible, manipulating these numbers is not likely because of the wide variety of sources that the data is derived from including multiple agencies, bureaucrats, surveys, etc.

The Good News that was Missed

What I argue makes the October report different, aside from the controversy and a small, but statistically significant drop in the unemployment rate is from the household side of the survey… this is what sometimes pushes up the unemployment rate even though the overall economy adds jobs.

In the October survey nearly 900,000 more people had jobs (despite the economy only adding 114,000 jobs).  This is a huge number, but may not show the full story (i.e. were they “good” jobs).  Something is, however, sometimes better than nothing and is an improvement as now those 900,000 are not chronically unemployed any longer.

Conclusion

My feeling is that the next 2-3 reports will be very telling and if shows some continued strength (beyond seasonal work) then it would seem the labor markets recovery is gaining momentum.

I know from my corner of the market, we are seeing more sign on bonuses at competitors, more counter-offers, more relocation package requirements, and are encountering more difficulty in general.  This is not just with specialized talent, this is with staff level talent in some cases as well

I know we are gearing up for things to change… are you?  Share your thoughts and experiences from your perspective; I would love to hear them!

© 2012 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved

The Retirement of Retirement?

The Retirement of Retirement?

Segment(s) of the TSC Impacted: Your organizations ability to sell open positions

Many of us have joked about working forever, but the reality is that isn’t a joke for many of us, by choice and sometimes not by choice.

This month I will quickly explore some stats that some may find depressing but will just serve as confirmation as what many have already realized.  I will go a bit further and talk about the impact on the employment market, both for those that are looking for work and those of us that are working.

Retirement by the numbers
Recently there was a popular commercial that stated that 10,000 people per day were retiring in the US.  An interesting number that gets attention, but is that really the case?  That would be 3.65 million people every year.

The truth is no one really knows, and of course if varies from month to month, but other stats indicate roughly 45% percent of those that have turned 65 have retired.

Not surprisingly reports indicate the percentage of the US workforce that is over 65 has more than doubled, growing 133.9% since 1995.

Retirement is getting more difficult
Many things are working against retirement and/or providing incentives for people to keep working past 65.  Consider the following:

401(k) gone MIA:

  • For many, 401(k) balances are just reaching where they were 4 years ago
  • According to some, 401(k) balances lost 25% of their value during the Great Recession
  • It takes many years to make up for a 25% loss and the value that it should have gained, especially in this market
  • We have not been good about saving anyway, with only 3 out of 10 people in enough to replace a majority of their income when they retire according to a 2010 report

Social (In)Security?

  • Social Security is raising the full retirement age to 67
  • It is unlikely to stop increasing the full retirement age
  • Social Security’s long term financial feasibility is questionable
  • Those in Generation X and younger think Social Security is a pipe dream that won’t be there for them

Fear of retirement’s reality

I attended a retirement planning seminar just to make sure I am covering the bases I need to, or at least was aware of the ones that I wasn’t covering.  During the presentation, there were two very good points made.

  • There is a good chance you will be retired as nearly long or perhaps even longer than you worked
  • The length of time one is in retirement requires significantly more planning, management and money than many people really realize
  • Many people simply don’t want to retire (partially or fully)

Impacts on the employment market
There are obvious impacts on the employment market, many of which we saw during the Great Recession.  People delay retirement (either by choice or by necessity), which then limits younger workers mobility (upward or laterally), which can eventually translate to fewer entry-level opportunities.

It’s that last point that may have the biggest impact.  From firsthand experience, I have seen this happen in my industry, Healthcare.

When the Great Recession came, many clinical professionals delayed retirement and decided to remain in their current roles to avoid putting a source of stable, relatively safe income at risk.  These two behaviors translated to less lateral and upward mobility for the existing workforce.  That in turn, severely limited the opportunities for new graduate RNs, since they depend on those hired the year before to move up to make room for them.

The larger scale impact of this may be a significant number of talented people leaving the field that they studied in favor of positions that they had to “settle” for.   Generally these positions are not as well-paying, under-utilize their skills and as a result, wastes much of their knowledge and talent.

Conclusion
While I certainly do not advocate forced retirement, I do think we need to be much better at allowing for middle ground.  For many employers and employees, the options are simply keep working, retire or quit and become a Wal-Mart Greeter.

While nothing is wrong with being a Wal-Mart Greeter (believe me, sometimes I wish I could have that job), I do think there is something wrong with someone taking that role because they had little choice.

Perhaps, by allowing people to scale back by working part-time, share their knowledge and expertise built over years of service to mentor those that are behind them, and serve as subject matter experts when challenges present themselves that we need help with, we can make enough room to provide some upward and lateral mobility, allow people to enjoy working longer by giving them options for how they want to end their career, and better serve our customers in the process.

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to send them my way!

© 2012 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved

2012′s Mid Year Report Card

2012′s Mid year report card 

This year is flying by because it is once again time for me to report on how well I did on my predictions for 2012.

At this point of the year things are a bit of a mixed bag, but let’s go through the ratings so far.

Moderate Job Growth- 7.3% to 7.9%
Mid Year Grade- B-
Comments
We see that growth is at a trickle now, but that the numbers have also been very volatile.

At this point I think the Unemployment Rate in the US will end the year at the high end of the range I predicted, again with some markets doing better than others.

Strong Healthcare Employment Growth
Mid Year Grade- B
Comments
Healthcare has certainly been and continues to be one of the economy’s strong points and growth in the first half of the year was likely slightly hampered by uncertainty of what the US Supreme Court would rule regarding Healthcare Reform.

We still have uncertainty because of the elections unknown impact but I believe growth will continue and  possibly accelerate late in the year depending on the elections outcome.

The Election Will Have a Negative Impact
Mid Year Grade- A
Comments
None are really necessary, but this was also one of my safer predictions to say the least.

Emerging Markets will begin to lead a Global Recovery
Mid Year Grade- C+
Comments
The emerging markets are a mixed bag at this point with some continuing to grow and do well, and others (China in particular) slowing.

Because of this, the emerging markets have not had as much of an impact as I would have thought, hence the grade.  I believe this is partially because of the ongoing problems in Europe combined with uncertainty around our own elections.   But we have all seen that things can change quickly and there is plenty of time before the end of the year, although I have to say this one isn’t looking so good!

Mobile Recruiting Sites and Geo-Targeted Capability Continue to Converge
Mid Year Grade- C+
Comments
Mobile is definitely this years “not-so-new new thing” in Recruiting, but convergence with geo-targeted capability has been slow to say the least.  I think as we see entry level hiring continue to grow in some parts of the country, which has only been recently, we may still see this start to gain momentum since this is the market segment where it is particularly useful.

The Sun Will Rise on 12/22/2012
Mid Year Grade- Incomplete

Comments
I watched about zombie events proliferate in my home town, including a zombie run at Pet Co Park, I thought perhaps I would be wrong about this and then I realized is was just Comic Con making its annual descent upon San Diego (no I didn’t go and yes, if there was a way to buy balcony tickets to just watch the spectacle I would!).

I did RSVP to the Zombie Apocalypse just in case, but I still think we’re all OK!

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to send them my way!

© 2012 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved

 What is going on with the Employment Market?

What is going on with the Employment Market?

According to some between 6,000 and 10,000 people retire every day.

Taking the lower number, which helps mitigate the fact that some people cannot retire, means that 180,000 jobs should become available for those looking and new entrants to the job market every month.

Other numbers indicate that about 84,000 new people enter the job market every month.  I personally it is more, but not double this number.  Since this is the number I could get, this is the number I will use.

So let’s do some simple math to assess the situation:

Every month in the US:

180,000 jobs become vacant (because of people retiring)

84,000 new workers enter the employment market (new graduates)

96,000 more jobs become available than new workers enter the employment market.

So theoretically we should be growing at least 96,000 more jobs every month for those displaced by the Great Recession, so why are we seeing such low monthly employment numbers?

Not to be a pessimist but, I can only conclude that we are still laying more people off than we are growing new jobs… So much so that it eats into the “natural” job growth that comes from the difference between exiting workers (retirements) and new workers entering the employment market (new grads).

Unfortunately I believe that consumption continues to either decrease or remain low because of a variety of factors to include the impact of so many people being out of work, economic uncertainty in Europe and here, stricter lending standards, etc.   Even the emerging markets that I had written about as the hope for recovery in an earlier entry are stumbling.

So what are your thoughts?  Are these the reasons or just part of it?  Or is it something else entirely?

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