End of Year Report Card: Mike’s Predictions for 2010
Segment(s) of the TSC Impacted: All
In January I shared my predictions for 2010 and I had overall good, but mixed marks at my mid mid-term report card. Naturally since we are at the end of the year, it’s time for the final grade!
Smart companies will begin to brace for the recovery
Prediction- Smart companies will figure out who is mission critical to keep and who to let slip out the door. More importantly they will figure out what is important to the people they want to keep and meet those needs with the hope of retaining them for the long-term.
Mid Year Grade- Incomplete
Final Grade- C
Commentary- There are a handful of companies really looking at this and certainly it seems that the coming retention problem we are all going to face sooner or later has slipped into the consciousness of the main stream.
However, consciousness is not action and action is not necessarily doing something that is effective.
Unemployment will stabilize and start to improve in some markets
Mid Year Grade- B
Final Grade- C
Prediction- I believe we will still see unemployment rise across the nation into the second quarter of the year. A small handful of markets will actually start seeing unemployment flatten and then begin to decline within this same time frame. By the fourth quarter I believe national unemployment will begin to show signs of improvement, however the improvement will be very modest. The slow decline in the unemployment rate will likely continue well into 2011 and not accelerate enough to bring significant improvements nationally until the second half of 2011.
Commentary- We have seen some positive signs in the employment market that seem to indicate we are heading in the right direction. However, it has continued to struggle and I can’t say we have seen anything consistent that would indicate to me that we’re six months or so from a more robust employment market.
Print will continue to experiment and shrink
Mid Year Grade- B
Final Grade- B
Prediction- Print advertising vendors will continue to experiment with different revenue models and different product offerings. We will continue to see this most dramatically within the newspaper segment, with different publishing schedules, shifts to being partially or entirely on line, while some others will simply go out of business.
Commentary- As I said at my mid-year report card, I didn’t go out on a limb with this prediction; however, an interesting wrinkle is the shift toward tablet computers and e-readers. The impact of Android based tablets are yet to be seen, but I can’t imagine that it will slow the growth of this market; it will only accelerate the transition. I think there are two questions that now present themselves for print media. The first is whether or not this shift is the final nail in the coffin for many print outlets that cannot or will not adapt. The second is whether or not print media will actually use these platforms as a means to make something of a comeback.
Job Boards will continue to decline, but will a shift begin?
Mid Year Grade- C
Final Grade- A
Prediction- The decline of job boards will continue but I think this year or 2011 will be a pivotal year. My gut feeling is that a job board will start to shift their pricing model to one that is more congruent with other newer vehicles that are available to us, specifically, a pay-per-click model.
Commentary- The decline of job boards has been well underway. They will all, very predictably, run their Super Bowl ads and tout their spike in job seeker traffic, but won’t share the fact that the traffic is mostly from people re-starting their job search after a holiday break or are people who have already been looking. I believe very little of the traffic will be that semi-passive mid to senior level person we are focused on finding.
The rise in Indeed.com’s status to number one in job seeker traffic, not by a little, but by a substantial margin is just further evidence of the decline. SimplyHired is also growing and will probably occupy a solid top 3 spot by the end of 2011.
Monster’s consolidation with Yahoo Hot Jobs is yet another sign of decline as we are only left with two major boards.
What is sad is that a significant amount of the traffic that the traditional job boards talk about in their sales meetings with us is coming from Indeed and SimplyHired.
What I think will be interesting to watch is the impact that LinkUp has on the market. After all, their product is what both employers and many job seekers really want, a search engine that reports back only true corporate jobs, not job board postings, headhunters or work at home scams, etc. The question for LinkUp, can they get enough traffic to get employers to pay for premium placement?
Social media will become widely utilized by even conservative organizations
Mid Year Grade- A
Final Grade- A
Prediction- The power and potential of social media will overcome event the most conservative of bureaucracies. With that, the competitive advantage that some have enjoyed by simply having a presence in social media (even just a mediocre presence) will begin to erode rapidly with new techniques and best practices quickly emerging among organizations that want to differentiate themselves in order to hold on to the competitive advantage that they can.
Commentary- This has only grown in scope even more since the middle of the year. Social Media has become so widely adopted that I think Recruiting departments get the strange look for not being on at least one platform (vs. getting the strange look for being on one as was the case about a year or two ago).
One should not confuse having a presence on one or more social media platforms with being effective. I think there is plenty of room for organizations to out play each other in this space and build sustainable competitive advantage.
One of the questions that remain is whether or not companies that are only somewhat invested in social media will begin to pull out because they don’t recognize the true nature and value of social media. Some companies will apply the same pedestrian metrics they apply to everything else they do in Recruitment and not recognize that social media is about relationship building, not just tracking source codes and reducing cost per hire and time to fill.
Twitter’s corporate/business product will be widely adopted
Mid Year Grade- D
Final Grade- D
Prediction- Some of you may or may not realize that Twitter is soon to release a subscription business product. I believe this is something that larger organizations already using Twitter have been yearning for and some of those not using Twitter have been waiting for. With the potential demand for this product, only the price point and execution could make this an unsuccessful venture for Twitter
Commentary- This prediction was off not too long after I made it, but new products in sponsored tweets and twitter job distribution vendors have become available and grown. While we are waiting to see how to use sponsored tweets for our purposes, and the job distribution vendors that focus on Twitter still seem to have some distance to cover, this area still has lots of room to develop.
Mobile will begin to emerge on the radars of main stream recruiting departments
Mid Year Grade- A
Final Grade- A
Prediction- Some of us have had the use of mobile devices (cell phones) on our horizon for a little while. I believe that this is the year that leading companies find a way to catch up with those on the bleeding edge. For the rest of the recruiting world, mobile will begin to slip into the consciousness much like social media did a couple of years ago.
Commentary- This only continues to grow in nearly every respect. Smart phones are only becoming more popular and capable; people are growing more and more dependent on these devices to the point that the novelty of being able to do something from your smart phone is being replaced with the expectation that you can do something from your smart phone. So organizations that do not develop a mobile presence quickly will be looked at as behind the times. Fortunately job seeker behavior has not quite changed yet, mainly because most people don’t have a copy of their resume on their smart phones, but that will change sooner rather than later since the capability exists now.
If you have any questions, comments or anything you would like to add, feel free to send them my way! All the best to you until next month when I try my hand at predictions again for 2011!
© 2010 Michael K. Peterson, All Rights Reserved
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